Tuesday, June 26, 2007
The next MAJOR hurdle is the cloture vote required as a step prior to the vote on the bill.
Friday, June 22, 2007
Thursday, June 14, 2007
The chance of this passing in the Senate is very high - why?
=There are more than 50 Senators who would vote for this bill (see our spreadsheet).
=There are enough votes for the bill that vulnerable Senators can vote against S.1348 as long as they help by voting for cloture.
="Killer Amendments" won't hurt this bill because they won't pass -- Reid is limiting amendments, McConnell is protecting the bill from the Republican side, and Kennedy is protecting the bill on the Dem side. And the "compromise gang" will vote en masse.
=A magic amendment to spend money on the border immediately is thought to provide political cover for Kyl/Isakson/Chambliss/Hutchison types.
=Lott and McConnell probably have enough muscle to get Hutchison, AK Senators, both Maine Senators, etc. to vote for cloture. McConnell and Lott themselves voted against it last time, but both favor this bill -- so as long as they get Reid to allow their favorite amendments, they're in, and this thing goes for a real vote.
Our prediction: This bill passes before Independence Day and the battle moves to the House of Representatives.
Link to spreadsheet here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p
Please click through to these can't-miss articles. First, from RIGHTWINGNEWS:
Yesterday, a GOP aide, who is one of my sources in the Senate, gave me the rundown on what's happening with the Senate immigration bill (this is the same person who I talked to last week about the bill).
First off, it does look like the Senate immigration bill is coming back. The conventional wisdom seems to be that it's going to be brought up right before the July 4th break, so that the Senate Republican leadership can try to use that as leverage to get votes (in other words, "vote for the bill or we'll have to waste your vacation time until you do").
This is despite the fact that the conservative leaders of the anti-amnesty movement are refusing to cooperate, and won't give Mitch McConnell a list of amendments that they want considered. My source tells me that the reason for this is that the game has now been rigged. McConnell is essentially promising to bring the amendments up in exchange for cloture votes, but he's publicly saying that they will strip any problematic amendments out in committee.
Also read Michelle Malkin today.
The $4.4 billion grand ruse
WashTimes reports that President Bush will offer his amnesty "confidence-builder" in a speech this morning:READ IT ALL HERE
Thursday, June 7, 2007
Votes on cloture shouldn't be confused with votes on the substance of the bill. Several Republicans and Democrats who favor this bill still voted against cloture because of a dispute over the amendments which were being considered. For example, John Kyl voted against cloture tonight.
Once the amendments limiting the guest worker provision passed, Republicans wanted their amendments considered. So Mitch McConnell, even though he generally favors "comprehensive immigration reform" worked to keep many Republicans together and voting against cloture.
Senators Murkowski, Stevens, Collins and Snowe -- all who are quite likely to vote for S.1348, stuck with their leader and voted against cloture so that Republican amendments wouldn't get squashed by Reid. Delaying this bill also helps some Senators avoid the intense ire back home.
Here is the roll call the key cloture vote today.
|Menendez (D-NJ) |
|Murkowski (R-AK) |
|Not Voting - 4|
The main point so far is that the "coalition" of Senators are voting essentially as a bloc. Other Senators are clarifying their general position as well. Murkowski and Voinovich both are now most obviously for the "compromise bill" despite their trying to keep quiet about it.
Please follow frequent updates on the Amendments at the MICHELLE MALKIN blog.
The full spreadsheet is here:
Friday, June 1, 2007
Summary: With 53 Senators currently in FIRMLY FOR or LEANS FOR, and 11 "Undecided," it looks very likely that this bill will pass in the Senate. It is possible an amendment will pass which will break up the compromise coalition, but Kennedy & Kyl have been using their influence to defeat amendments which threaten the delicate balance.
We had previously had Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton as "Undecided" beacause of their initial guarded comments. But common sense, and their interest in provisions that weaken this bill's restrictions by removing the point system illustrate that the LEAN FOR this bill at a minimum.
We moved Russ Feingold from UNCERTAIN to LEANS FOR this bill based on comments to the Appelton Post-Crescent in conjunction with his vote against the amendment which would strip the bill of the immediate provisional Z-Visas. Both Wisconsin Senators are in LEANS FOR partly because they both have mild reservations about guest worker provisions and the point system.
John Sununu is now FIRMLY AGAINST to this bill (from Leaning Against) based on the article in the Manchester Union-Leader.
Sam Graves (R-MO) is FIRMLY AGAINST the bill based on a report from a radio listener.
Ron Paul (R-TX) is FIRMLY AGAINST the bill based his recent "Texas Straight Talk." http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2007/tst052507.htm
Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) is a sponsor of the house version of "comprehensive immigration reform," so he's in "FIRMLY FOR."
The full spreadsheet is here:
On this spreadsheet, you can click to see multiple tabs. Click on the word SENATE or HR to see your representative's position. And call!