The chance of this passing in the Senate is very high - why?
=There are more than 50 Senators who would vote for this bill (see our spreadsheet).
=There are enough votes for the bill that vulnerable Senators can vote against S.1348 as long as they help by voting for cloture.
="Killer Amendments" won't hurt this bill because they won't pass -- Reid is limiting amendments, McConnell is protecting the bill from the Republican side, and Kennedy is protecting the bill on the Dem side. And the "compromise gang" will vote en masse.
=A magic amendment to spend money on the border immediately is thought to provide political cover for Kyl/Isakson/Chambliss/Hutchison types.
=Lott and McConnell probably have enough muscle to get Hutchison, AK Senators, both Maine Senators, etc. to vote for cloture. McConnell and Lott themselves voted against it last time, but both favor this bill -- so as long as they get Reid to allow their favorite amendments, they're in, and this thing goes for a real vote.
Our prediction: This bill passes before Independence Day and the battle moves to the House of Representatives.
Link to spreadsheet here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p